27.05.2013
I will analyse, Nuclear Power of Iran.Because it is the most important subject all over the world.EU countries,USA and other countries interested in this subject.Iran had got peceful aims in this subject.After that this policy was changed by the state.
Iran must reach %90 uranium to product nuclear weapon .It has got %20 uranium.In addition Iran used for civic aims energy last years as North Korea but it changed this policy day by day.After that USA and EU wanted to finish petroleum exportation with Iran.UN Security Council want to apply sanction to stop Nuclear activity of Iran.Because USA and Israel believe that ‘’It is big threaten our security.Tahran should open some nuclear centrals to control of International Atomic Energy Agency.Because If Iran doesn’t stop here ,nuclear weapons will spread all Middle East.After that They believe that’’Turkey , S.Arabia and Egypt armanent Nuclear Weapons.After that they want to establish transnational nuclear market and nuclear banks.So they signed treaty .Thus they don’t have nuclear weapons.So Complex deterrence means this power passes over of Turkey.It is big threaten for Turkey’s security.In addition USA want to provide self security.In other words gulf countries and USA establish good relations.If these nuclear weapons get to terror gorups,USA and it’s supporter will discompose from this situation.In addition Western countries have big interests in this subject. First off all they want to control of energy transfer.Second off all They can’t stand spreading of Nuclear Weapons.Because they transfer second hand technology to other countries.USA want to break power of Iran in the region.After that I will explain begin doctrine was issued by Israel which they don’t want to have nuclear power of other contries .Iran is obtaining nuclear power to have nuclear immunity and pers civilization. [1]
Iran has operated about nuclear power since 1960.USA and USSR could effort having influence above Iran.It has got excellent geo-strategic position.In addition it has got a lot of natural sources.Shah worried about communism.Also he was supported by the USA.According to first atomic pile was given by the USA to Iran in 1967.However Shah could effort establishing twenty nuclear centrals 1990s.So Iran started summit with Germany and France in 1974.These summits convenient for interets of France.They want to establish five nuclear centrals to obtain 800 milion tons of uranium.After that Shah’s regime was overturned by Humeyni’s supporter in 1979.So this treaty didn’t apply here. Iraq waged war against Iran.They have conflicted for nine years. According to this treaty Iran paid four bilion francs to Iran.However Iran abolished this treaty to start Iran and Iraq war.So France applied to court.After that Iran gave up one bilion from it.After that Western states would support of Iran.So Iran established good relations with China ,Russia,North Korea,India,Pakistan.According to datuum in 2006;Iran has got four nuclear centrals and nuclear reactors.Accordig to International Atomic Energy Agency’s report;Iran realized enrichment of uranium in Natanz Nuclear Censtral where ıt takes place North of Iran.It can product nuclear weapon.In addition Iran products deuterium oxide in the Arak nuclear central where it takes place in the Southwest of Iran.It’s name is plutonium which it is alternative of uranium.In addition Iran product atomic bomb,it will have to need to enrichment isotope of 235.Iran issued’’We enriched 164 centrifuge uranium in the %3.5 proportion.’’It isn’t enough to have Nuclear weapon.Iran must %90 uranium to product nuclear weapon.Iran doen’t product atomic bomb.Iran want to close Strait Of Hormuz.It lay to foundations of Shitee Empire in Iraq.This situation will harm to Middle East.I don’t think writer.Iran can product Nuclear Weapon.Because other states have got nuclear weapons.International society must fair in this subject.Because law is universal.In other words same sanctions must apply to other states.[2].
I will expllain economic sorurces of Iran.Petroleum is very important in the ecomomic and political life of Iran.Nowadays natural gas is as important as for Iran to be strong economically,politically,strategically.Tensions icreased between Russia and Georgia.Energy dependency is effective above political process.Russia excessive use of force against Georgia.However European states didn’t intervene it.Because they have to buy natural gas from Russia.In addition Iran noticed of this situation which it can effort using for sef-interests. In addition Iran has got 27.5 trillion cubic meters.In addition Russia is the richest country all over the world in this subject.Iran has got natural gas sources both land and sea.Iran isn’t good for natural gas exportation all over the world where Iran has got%1 natural gas exportation.It products 400 million cubic meters daily.It isn’t enough for natural gas exportation .I will explain some reasons.Domestic consumption icreases in Iran every day.According energy consumption increases in Iran every day.Iran lacks of investment in this subject which it doesn’t allocate resources.According to Iran uses old technology in this subject.After that Tension icrease between Iran and Western countries.Iran sign natural gas treaty with periphery countries.Thus it can effort USA embargo.For example Turkey must buy natural gas to Iran.So It must support natural gas projects.I think Iran is obstracted by USA and other western states.Because If Iran want to continue nuclear activity,it will have to need economic power.In other words it must export petroleum and natural gas to other countries.
I will explain from BBC News Middle East’’What does the IAEA report say?
The IAEA has long expressed concern about Iran's nuclear programme, but its latest report (November 2011) lays out the case in much greater detail than before.
Drawing on evidence provided by more than 10 member states as well as its own information, the IAEA said Iran had carried out activities "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device".
It said that some of these activities could only be used to develop nuclear weapons - though it did not say that Iran had mastered the process, nor how long it would take Iran to make a bomb.
The report documents alleged Iranian testing of explosives, experiments on detonating a nuclear weapon, and work on weaponisation - the processes by which a device might be adapted and hardened to fit into the nose-section of a missile.
There are some allegations that are listed openly for the first time, including the claim that Iran has used computer modelling on the behaviour of a nuclear device.
Previously, the IAEA complained that Tehran had not fully co-operated with its inspectors, though it did say that Iran had displayed "greater transparency" during an inspection visit in August 2011.
In March 2012, it was announced that Iran had agreed to take part in fresh six-party talks and allow IAEA inspectors to visit its key military research site at Parchin, under certain conditions.’’ [3]
Iran doesn’t worry about open nuclear centrals. However this institution doesn’t trust to Iran. Ahmedi Nejad criticized this report. Because he believes that’’ They aren’t objective in this subject.’’ I think other states are provoked by USA. Because If Iran has nuclear weapons, This situation will be big threaten for interests of USA and Israel. In addition France threat to Iran. Because it has got big interests in the Middle East. France was the first state intervention in Libya in 2011. However it didn’t support to USA about Iraq. As far as I remember Ahmedi Nejad said that’’ Israel remove from map’’. [4] According to UN apply to some sanctions against Iran to stop nuclear activity. China and Russia veto these sanctions.[5] In addition Turkey and Brazil didn’t approve these sanctions Iran is worry about this subject. Because Israel threat to Iran. I think this situation will cause war next years. Iran and Syria are supported by Russia. Because Russia can effort breaking power of USA in the Middle East. The most important Russia has got three military bases in Syria. In addition Iran supported to Syria as Russia. Because if Esad’s government doesn’t overturn in Syria.[6] Syria is right in this subject. Because people are supported by Western states to achieve Middle East project. Iran and Russia can’t stand applying of this project. This situation will be harmful for Turkey. Because all middle east’s territory will break into pieces. Nuclear weapon is excuse to achieve their targets. Same politic applied in the Iraq and Libya. Humanitarian intervention is excuse as other methods. Iran and other states had had nuclear weapons for a long time. As far as I know Saddam and Shah was supported by USA. Shah was overturned by the Humeyni’s supporters in 1979.Thus USA lost a strategic country in the Middle East .
I will explain NPT fourth condition Don't existing nuclear powers have obligations to get rid of their weapons under the NPT?
Article VI commits them to "pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament". The nuclear powers claim they have done this by reducing their warheads, but critics say they have not really moved towards nuclear disarmament. Critics also argue that the US and UK have broken the treaty by transferring nuclear technology from one to another. The US and UK say that this is not covered by the NPT.’’ [7]
China, France and Israel didn’t sign this treaty altough ninety-nine countries signed it on 5.March.1970.In addition Turkey and IsraelThey could effort improving their nuclear powers. I will explain first and second condition of it.According to first condition nuclear states won’t transfer technology to other states .Second condition other states won’t sell technology to other dtes in this subject.In addition this treaty was signed by Iran.[8] Iran didn’t obey rules of this traety.Because Shah was supported by USA. This situation changed in 1979 to emerge Iran Islamic revolution.It is harmful for USA.As far as I remember states must respond their sovereignty rights.Israel and other states have nuclear weapons.However IAEA didn’t apply sanction to them.International law must be same for all states.Because law is universal.
States must repond sovereign rights each other.In addition nuclear acitivity or Iran was obstracted by the western states.It is unfair situation.Other countries product nuclear weapons.However they aren’t controlled by IAEA.Nowadays states intervene internal affairs of other states.Because international structure allow to it.I will explain Monroe Doctrine.It was issued by USA in 1823.According to European states won’t intervene internal affairs of America continent.In addition USA won’t intervene internal affairs of Euoropean states.[9]
It doesn’t appropriate to sovereign equality of states and principle of non-intervention principles. States have same rights.In addition Sovereign equality of states means they have same responsibilities which it approves second principle in the UN treaty.States won’t intervene internal affairs of other states.However this situation changed all over the world.[10] Humanitarian intervention uses to occupy some countries.Thus they seized natural sources of these countries. Same situation exist in Iran.Because it has got a lot of natural sources.However European countries haven’t got these sources.First off all they can effort emerging perception of threat about Iran.Second off they will be alone all over the world.Because they have media and other powers all over the world.Natural gas will important next years for all countires.EU countires will have to have to it. Iran is the most second country all over the world for natural gas.Russia is the richest country all over the world in this subject.USA and Western States can’t stand exporting of Iran.Thus it will loose economic power with economic sanctions.According to they want to be dependent of Iran economically.After that Iran is big barieer to achieve their targets.
I will explain ABM teraty.It was signed by USA and USSR in 1972.It has sixteen conditions.
‘’
Article I ‘’
1. Each Party undertakes to limit anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems and to adopt other measures in accordance with the provisions of this Treaty.
2. Each Party undertakes not to deploy ABM systems for a defense of the territory of its country and not to provide a base for such a defense, and not to deploy ABM systems for defense of an individual region except as provided for in Article III of this Treaty.
Article II
1. For the purpose of this Treaty an ABM system is a system to counter strategic ballistic missiles or their elements in flight trajectory, currently consisting of:
(a) ABM interceptor missiles, which are interceptor missiles constructed and deployed for an ABM role, or of a type tested in an ABM mode;
(b) ABM launchers, which are launchers constructed and deployed for launching ABM interceptor missiles; and
(c) ABM radars, which are radars constructed and deployed for an ABM role, or of a type tested in an ABM mode.
2. The ABM system components listed in paragraph 1 of this Article include those which are:
(a) operational;
(b) under construction;
(c) undergoing testing;
(d) undergoing overhaul, repair or conversion; or
(e) mothballed.
Article III
Each Party undertakes not to deploy ABM systems or their components except that:
(a) within one ABM system deployment area having a radius of one hundred and fifty kilometers and centered on the Partys national capital, a Party may deploy: (1) no more than one hundred ABM launchers and no more than one hundred ABM interceptor missiles at launch sites, and (2) ABM radars within no more than six ABM radar complexes, the area of each complex being circular and having a diameter of no more than three kilometers; and
(b) within one ABM system deployment area having a radius of one hundred and fifty kilometers and containing ICBM silo launchers, a Party may deploy: (1) no more than one hundred ABM launchers and no more than one hundred ABM interceptor missiles at launch sites, (2) two large phased-array ABM radars comparable in potential to corresponding ABM radars operational or under construction on the date of signature of the Treaty in an ABM system deployment area containing ICBM silo launchers, and (3) no more than eighteen ABM radars each having a potential less than the potential of the smaller of the above-mentioned two large phased-array ABM radars.
Article IV
The limitations provided for in Article III shall not apply to ABM systems or their components used for development or testing, and located within current or additionally agreed test ranges. Each Party may have no more than a total of fifteen ABM launchers at test ranges.
Article V
1. Each Party undertakes not to develop, test, or deploy ABM systems or components which are sea-based, air-based, space-based, or mobile land-based.
2. Each Party undertakes not to develop, test or deploy ABM launchers for launching more than one ABM interceptor missile at a time from each launcher, not to modify deployed launchers to provide them with such a capacity, not to develop, test, or deploy automatic or semi-automatic or other similar systems for rapid reload of ABM launchers.
Article VI
To enhance assurance of the effectiveness of the limitations on ABM systems and their components provided by the Treaty, each Party undertakes:
(a) not to give missiles, launchers, or radars, other than ABM interceptor missiles, ABM launchers, or ABM radars, capabilities to counter strategic ballistic missiles or their elements in flight trajectory, and not to test them in an ABM mode; and
(b) not to deploy in the future radars for early warning of strategic ballistic missile attack except at locations along the periphery of its national territory and oriented outward.
Article VII
Subject to the provisions of this Treaty, modernization and replacement of ABM systems or their components may be carried out.
Article VIII
ABM systems or their components in excess of the numbers or outside the areas specified in this Treaty, as well as ABM systems or their components prohibited by this Treaty, shall be destroyed or dismantled under agreed procedures within the shortest possible agreed period of time.
Article IX
To assure the viability and effectiveness of this Treaty, each Party undertakes not to transfer to other States, and not to deploy outside its national territory, ABM systems or their components limited by this Treaty.
Article X
Each Party undertakes not to assume any international obligations which would conflict with this Treaty.
Article XI
The Parties undertake to continue active negotiations for limitations on strategic offensive arms.
Article XII
1. For the purpose of providing assurance or compliance with the provisions of this Treaty, each Party shall use national technical means of verification at its disposal in a manner consistent with generally recognized principles of international law.
2. Each Party undertakes not to interfere with the national technical means of verification of the other Party operating in accordance with paragraph 1 of this Article.
3. Each Party undertakes not to use deliberate concealment measures which impede verification by national technical means of compliance with the provisions of this Treaty. This obligation shall not require changes in current construction, assembly, conversion, or overhaul practices.
Article XIII
1. To promote the objectives and implementation of the provisions of this Treaty, the Parties shall establish promptly a Standing Consultative Commission, within the framework of which they will:
(a) consider questions concerning compliance with the obligations assumed and related situations which may be considered ambiguous;
(b) provide on a voluntary basis such information as either Party considers necessary to assure confidence in compliance with the obligations assumed;
(c) consider questions involving unintended interference with national technical means of verification;
(d) consider possible changes in the strategic situation which have a bearing on the provisions of this Treaty;
(e) agree upon procedures and dates for destruction or dismantling of ABM systems or their components in cases provided for by the provisions of this Treaty;
(f) consider, as appropriate, possible proposals for further increasing the viability of this Treaty; including proposals for amendments in accordance with the provisions of this Treaty;
(g) consider, as appropriate, proposals for further measures aimed at limiting strategic arms.
2. The Parties through consultation shall establish, and may amend as appropriate, Regulations for the Standing Consultative Commission governing procedures, composition and other relevant matters.
Article XIV
1. Each Party may propose amendments to this Treaty. Agreed amendments shall enter into force in accordance with the procedures governing the entry into force of this Treaty.
2. Five years after entry into force of this Treaty, and at five-year intervals thereafter, the Parties shall together conduct a review of this Treaty.
Article XV
1. This Treaty shall be of unlimited duration.
2. Each Party shall, in exercising its national sovereignty, have the right to withdraw from this Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests. It shall give notice of its decision to the other Party six months prior to withdrawal from the Treaty. Such notice shall include a statement of the extraordinary events the notifying Party regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests.
Article XVI
1. This Treaty shall be subject to ratification in accordance with the constitutional procedures of each Party. The Treaty shall enter into force on the day of the exchange of instruments of ratification.
2. This Treaty shall be registered pursuant to Article 102 of the Charter of the United Nations.[11]
In conclusion I believe that Iran isn’t right to improve Nuclear programme.NPT was signed by Iran in this term.So It must obey rules of NPT.Because it doesn’t security for us.Missile shield project is applied by them to protect of Israel in the war.Turkey must protect balances in the region.Because it will be harmful for us.In addition We must improve economic relations with them.Because they export natural gas.This dependency will continue next years.We export other with them.Economic,political and cultural relations have to be strong with neighbours.It is very important for security ,economy.In addition,we must have had good relations with Western contries.If we support Iran or USA,this condition will clash with our national interests. These treaties was signed by the states to protect national peace.So they must obey rules of these treaties.Especially Turkey,Iran,Syria and Israel must regard it.Iran must stop nuclear activites.Because nuclear weapons are big threaten for humanty.Israel and Iran must solve this problem with negotiation.In addition UN mmust have been active policy in this subject.According to Turkey doesn’t allow to this nuclear programme of Iran.Because Iran is neighbour.The most important Nuclear weapon will cause regional power of Iran..
OĞUZ TANER HACIFAZLIOĞLU
[1] . Prof.DR.Nurşin ATEŞOĞLU GÜNEY 28.July.2012 Seminar Nuclear Energy and Turkey
[2] http://www.avrasyabir.org/2012/01/iran-ve-nukleer-enerji/ Date Of access:14.Jan.2013
[3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11709428, http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/planet/19197483.asp Access of date:19.Jan.2013
[4] http://www.gazete5.com/haber/israil-haritadan-silinir-4638.htm Access of date:19.Jan.2013
[5] http://www.rusya.ru/Content/5851-Rusya+ve+%C3%87in__8217;den+%C4%B0ran+karar%C4%B1na+veto Access of date:19.Jan.2013
[6] http://www.heg.gen.tr/haber/1485/iranin-suriyeyi-destekleme-nedenleri.html Access of date:19.Jan.2013
[7] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11709428 Access of date:19.Jan.2013
[8] Tayyar ARI International Relations and Foreign Policy ninth edition Page:603.
[9] http://iskenderkarakaya.wordpress.com/uluslararasi-iliskiler-sozlugu-2/uluslararasi-politika/uluslararasi-politika-1/ Date of Access :23.Jan.2013
[10] Hüseyin PAZARCI International Law sixth edition page 150-151.
[11] http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/treaties/abm/abm2.html Siteye Erişim Tarihi:22.05.2013
