3rd BLUE BLACK SEA INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS on POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND SOCIETY

Prospects of Conflict Resolution, Cooperation and Democratization

15-17 October 2012

Sakarya, Turkey

Mutual Check and Balance in the Black Sea

 

 

Absract:

The Black Sea region is a historically, geopolitically and geoeconomically deep focused environment inwhich global actors are trying to play crucial roles as well as regional actors. Therefore; the positioning of these actors in the area, influences all strategic actions aiming to acquire best results by using best practices. In this context; their movement capabilities risk to provoke each others whose interests could be negatively effected. The energy security, the status of straits, regional conflicts, the indefinite status of the Caspian Sea interms of the International Law, intervention of international organizations, all of these parts constitute  an arena consisting of fighting regionally and internationally active political and economic warriors. At this point; an establishment of a mutual check and balance system shall be necessary to manage this international political arena, by the inspiration from the similar denomination identified in “comparative political systems” courses as  an indispensable component for an accurate functioning and management of  a democratic political system within keywords of mutual dependency in the parliamentary system and mutual independency in the presidential system. This will not be undoubtedly a strict system of which boundaries are politically and legally marked out but, will certainly be a deep analysis of political and economic interests of those actors, even covering a bilateral or multilateral determination of an acceptable axis onwhich they will not have been challenged by each others within the scope of mutual dependencies and independencies between them. Especialy, the democratization process in the region and its encouragement by both regional and international actors, will be key elements to facilitate the establishment of such a system. This paper will be concentrated on the possibility of such an axis determination by considering the positioning of actors following their interests, and  an expected reflexion of a democratization process to the creation of an international environment being capable to manage this axis.

Keywords: check and balance, mutual dependency and independency, energy security, straits, regional conflicts, democratization

Giray ERGİN

Introduction:

After the Cold War, two polar world was destroyed and with the emerging of new states, new conflict areas have been flourished, challenging the regional and international actors which take parts regarding the new athmosphere. The Black Sea region is the most exemplar area which reflects this new situation. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Black Sea has been geographically shared by three former Soviet Republics in addition to Russian Federation: Georgia, Ukraine and Moldovia, and two states of Warsaw Pact; Roumania and Bulgaria. Therefore; the equilibrium in the region, including the status quo ante between the Soviet Union and Turkey, has been divided into new independent actors, released from both administrative and allied dependencies.

The variation of regional actors brought about various separate interests including mostly economic and security issues.   The temporary withdrawing of Russia which intended to repair crucial effects of transition to a new political unit being successor of the Soviet Union, led those newly emerged countries to attempt to create an environment inwhich they could follow their own concerns. Especially their projection of integrating to the market economy, as hesitated members being derived from the ex- central oriented economy  and their security concerns originated from a possible reactivation of Russian international political vision pushed those countries towards the intervention of  the opposite pole in the cold war.

The so-called opposite pole consisting of primarily USA and EU was also interested in the area not only for developing political and economic relations with former republics of the Soviet Union but also for the energy security including the secure transfer of oil and natural gas from the Caucassian and the Central Asia, which are so important for especially European countries regarding their increasing needs for energy.

And finally Russia which has a strong desire to return to its ancient days as an international power, has no intention to lose their impact on former Soviet Republics in the Black Sea, the Caucassian and the Central Asia, which are stood at its consideration as its near periphery.

Within this context; clashes of interests prevent the formation of a peaceful environment inwhich any of actors is not challenged by each other. Therefore; a need for  a system which manage all these interests in an acceptable manner, emerged. This system which is identified as a mutual check and balance in this paper, aims to design and mark boundaries between actors from the point that all active parts have dependencies and independencies regarding each others; including available balances in addition to find alternative checks.

In the first part, a brief  listing of problems and issues in the Black Sea region and positioning of relevant actors will be defined.

In the second part, relations between those relevant actors within the framework of alternative balancing policies in addition to existing ones will be expressed.

In the conclusion part,  a possibility to formulate a check and balance system will be questioned.

Problems & Issues:

In order to understand the nature of relations in the region, it is more useful to examine the Soviet Union period. During that time, Soviet administration tried to connect all parts constituting the federation around a concept of dependence on each other. Furthermore; during the Soviet period, the administration implemented a policy of minorities’ residences in all republics so as to prevent that any group in the society keep control of the republic. This policy had also helped Russia after the end of the cold war. Any independent attempt of ruling elites in those republics had to face that fragile component in additon to dependence of their political well being on their relations with Russian Federation.

The main factor for the fact that the formation of an environment which stipulate both the competition and the coordination in the region is rather problematic, is Russia’s concern about being a continously economic and political figure, and its suspicion that external interventions would be a threat to its status. In order to eliminate this, Russia exercices policies  to keep itself as  a main agent for energy transfer, trade and sustainability of the security. Therefore; it considers the democratization process as a lowering factor for its influence. On the other hand, international actors such as USA and EU being mostly focused on the development of the market economy and favouring the democratization of former Soviet republics, are trying to break this influence that Russia followed and to secure energy ways. Approximately simultaneous membership of Roumania and Bulgaria to either NATO and EU, should be considered as a clear example of those international actors’ interventions in order to move closer to the region. Policies of Ukraine and Georgia towards the same objective have been suspended as a result of Russian counter policies.

The primary concern which shapes both regional and international relations in the area is the energy security. Either the route of tanker transportation and pipe lines are on the “East-West Energy Corridor”, in other words in the Black Sea region.[1]The active involvement of Russia in energy transfer and its strong desire of being continuously a decision maker in the transfer process leads other regional and international actors to position themselves as either a follower of any compatible space and cooperative opportunities or exercicer of new matching and confronting policies.

The democratization process so called “color revolutions” which started with; Georgia in  2003, Roumania and Ukraine in 2004, and Kirghizistan in March of 2005, and temporarily defeated in countries such as Russia, Uzbekistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan should be considered as the core factor trying to balance Russia in the region and certainly leading the Russian political consciousness toward a threatful perception for its political position.[2] This perception would be meaningful within the concept of dependence of former republics’ ruling elites on Russia in terms of their political well being.

Ethnic problems including; Abhazia and Southern Osetia in Georgia, Daghstan and Chechnia in the Russian Federation, Dinipro in Moldovia in addition to regional conflicts consisting of Armenian invasion of Azerbaidjan’s Nagorno Karabakh, are considered as deterioring factors for the establishment of a long term and sustainable relations.

The Black Sea has a special position for  U.S. strategy of combat with terrorism inwhich countries in the Black Sea are supposed to play a crucial role against the threat coming from the Middle East.[3] Furthermore; U.S. consider the Black Sea as a monitoring center with military bases, radar stations and spy planes to control military movements of Russia and Belarus in general, and for a possible military operation against İran in particular. [4]Therefore; U.S insists on a revision of Montreux, but Turkish- Russian alliance is opposed to such a revision.

After the cold war the establishment of BSCE within the leadership of Turkey was aiming  mostly economic relations but in the process led also  a creation of organizations concerning security issues such as Operation Black Sea Harmony and BLACKSEAFOR. However, nowadays  especially BSCE  is not at an expectable level which is fully exerciced.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the status of the Caspian Sea regarding the International Law is not specifaically defined. If neighbour countries recognize the Caspian Sea as an open sea, they will have territorial waters of 12 miles and an exclusive economic area of 200 miles. On the other hand; economic areas and territorial waters will not be valid in terms of legal status while it is recognized as an internal lake. Since neighbour countries have seperate considerations  on this case, the international law has difficulty to be applied in the region. Primary conflict points are inequal distribution of resources and security concern. The leading conflict in this context is between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan because of Kepez.[5]

Mutual Check and Balance

Within the above mentioned arguments; the axis onwhich competing actors follows their interests  needs a system to create an environment of those issues to be managed at an optimum point and level.

Russia’s prudent approach towards the democratization in former Soviet republics may be conciliated by the widening of democracy in an including way of minorities’ political freedom in these republics in additon to assure the national unity and territorial integrity. Especially the security function of Operation Black Sea Harmony and BLACKSEAFOR may be expanded in the protection of those issues. The function of BSCE could also be detailed with the real control of the region as a real independent organization including; the democratization, ethnic conflicts, energy transfer and international disagreements for straits, in other words to create an organization to manage all the activities in the region. This would also help the restricted intervention of NATO, EU and US, by insisting on the idea of “Black Sea policies should be followed in the hand of the Black Sea’s hinterland.” Turkish- Russian alliance on the opposition to a revision of Montreux and Nato intervention in the Black Sea is one of important implications supporting this idea. Finally; more democratization would be balanced by the more intervention of BSCE inwhich Russia is permitted to be more active. The more activation of BSCE does not mean that its members do not establish relations with NATO and EU, on the contrary that would stipulate their position in view of their counterparts

Russia as well as an energy producer, is also a political force willing to control other energy producing republics in its near periphery. However its capability of producing consumer goods is very limited and therefore is dependent on foreign trade. Even that Russia is controlling the energy transfer area, it ought to sell it . In this context,  Russia’s influence on oil and gas prices could be balanced with its dependence on foreign trade with other countries including international and regional actors. However at this point China could be assessed as a main seller of no energy materials but a lack of variation in trade partners and being dependent on only limited number of state would not be an acceptable preference.

With the opening of “Blue Stream natural gas pipe line”, Russian natural gas is transmitted under the Black Sea. The amount of oil transported on the Black Sea is over 3. million barrels. There are also new pipe line proposals such as Köstence-Trieste, Burgaz-Dedeağaç, Samsun-Ceyhan. Turkey’s intention is to put the energy transportation into pipe lines in order to decrease the circulation on straits and for echological concerns. Another reason of Turkey’s insistence on the construction of Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipe line is that Ceyhan, which is also a location towhich Caspian oil is transported will be a permenant terminal station by the transportation of Russian oil following the achievement of that pipe line. [6]

On the other hand; Russia is trying to monopolize its position in natural gas by acting treaties on transportation of Turkmen natural gas to Russia through Kazakhstan, which could interrupt NABUCCO project including the transportation both Turkmen and Azeri gas to the Europe through a pipe line under the Caspian Sea. Another process which makes Russia is advantegeous in not only in natural gas, but also  in oil is the mutual agreement between Russia and Kazakhstan on the transportation of oil in Tengiz basin of Kazakhstan to Novorosis port of Russia by increasing the capacity in the available pipe line instead of transmitting to Bakü-Tiflis-Ceyhan line.[7] Another project, the Southern Stream which is a joint project of Russia and Italy, with lower cost and without any gas provision problem became more attractive than Nabucco Project. Turkey which does not prefer to be by passed in the route, approved the passage of pipe line through its territorial waters. Turkey acted another treaty on the transportation of Azeri gas to Europe by another pipe line. Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipe Line (TANAP) in order to increase the variation of transportation channels The adventegeous side of this project relatively to NABUCCO has an available capacity of natural gas provision.[8] Additionaly, natural gas sondages is continuing under the Black Sea.

In response to US containment policy in Balkans and Central Europe against Russia by including Poland, Czech Republic, Roumania and Bulgaria to NATO, Russia which has achieved very important leverage in the eyes of European Union by means of  pipe lines is trying to enforce this military blockade through other channels. [9]

Armenian invasion of 20% part in Azerbaijan land inviolation of the International Law is the most important regional problem which influence compact relations in the area. This problem meaning a violation of territorial integrity principle leads the isolation of Armenia which has deep economic problems. The primary reason that this problem is still continuing, is that all global actors does not show any willingness for the termination of this occupation. Like in all regional and ethnic problems Russia prefers to use this problem in order to control countries which has a potential to confront its interests. Besides, opinions that the Hocali Homocide committed in 1992 should be judged as a type of genocide according to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide[10], are being increasingly expressed.[11] It has to keep in mind that current president of Armenia joined this crime and this could open the way of his trial.

Conclusion:

The Black Sea region’s content of issues, problems, competition and coordination, shapes the movement capability of international and regional actors. The post cold war process covering; the increase on number of states, new regional relations as well as international ones, intention to join  a world inwhich democratic priorities and market economy principles are taken into consideration, security concerns, all of this lead a way to require an environment which should be established in an equilibrium of interest conflict and competition with the cooperation and the coordination.  Actually, realities of the region are pushing this equilibrium. Western countries need energy while Russia and republics in its near periphery need to integrate to international markets. Former republics of the Soviet Union try to exercice policies independently from Russia, therefore the membership of some western organizations could be an efficient and rational channel for this purpose. Ethnic problems require more democracy while regional border problems have an opportunity to be solved by the clear implementation of international law. As a matter of fact; the check and balance between actors have been assured in a way that Russia is playing the energy card against US and EU containment policies while democratization attempts face ethnic problems in addition to regional cooperation against international intervention such as Turkish- Russian alliance in straits. However, this balance should be oriented to more cooperative and peaceful attempts: The development in democratization, regional organizations’s polices to assume more responsibility  and to expand their intervention area, and more importantly a vision prospecting regional based issues as concepts to be solved by  regional countries.

As we defined above: ““Black Sea policies should be followed in the hands of the Black Sea’s hinterland.”

Giray ERGİN

BİLİMAR

Bilimsel Araştırmalar ve Stratejik Analizler Merkezi

[1] For the importance of the Black Sea in terms of energy supply and Turkey, look; Necdet Pamir, “Enerji Arz Güvenliği ve Türkiye”, Stratejik Analiz, No. 83 (Mart 2007), s. 14-

24 ve Necdet Pamir, “Karadeniz: Enerji Güvenliğine ve Kaynakların Çeşitlendirilmesine Açılan

Kapı”, Avrasya Dosyası, Cilt 13, No. 1 (2007), s. 243-265.

[2] Birol Ertan, “Colour Revolutions”, Gündem,

Sinan Oğan; “Orange Revolutions, New World Order of Soros: Second Hand Democracy and Neo- Cons”

[3] Emel Oktay, a.g.m., s. 153.

[4] Hasan Kanbolat, “Karadeniz’in Değişen Jeopolitiği”, s. 27 ve Hasan Kanbolat, “Türkiye,

Karadeniz’de Yeni…”, s. 78-80.

[5] Aslan YAVUZ, Hazar’ın Statüsü, Jeopolitiği ve Bölgesel Güvenliğe Etkileri

[6] For details;; Necdet Pamir, “Karadeniz: Enerji Güvenliğine ve Kaynakların Çeşitlendirilmesine Açılan Kapı”

[7] For details.; Hasan Kanbolat, “Karadeniz’in Jeopolitik Önemi Artıyor”,

Stratejik Analiz , Mayıs 2008, s. 48-54.

[8] Sol portal

[9] Sol portal

[10] Article VI: Persons charged with genocide or any of the other acts enumerated in article III shall be tried by a competent tribunal of the State in the territory of which the act was committed, or by such international penal tribunal as may have jurisdiction with respect to those Contracting Parties which shall have accepted its jurisdiction.

[11] Sinan Oğan; “Hocalı Katliamını Soykırım Olarak Kabul Ettirmek”http://www.zeynebiye.com/74546_Hocali-Katliami-ni-Soykirim-Olarak-Kabul-Ettirmek.html, 25.02.2010